Asian Handicap Total Goals - Betting Information

How do you calculate the probability of specific winning margins?

I want to focus a bit more on Asian-handicap betting , but I don’t really know how to calculate an estimated probability of different winning margins, and therefore I can’t find value.
Let’s say Team A are favorites against Team B, how would I calculate the chances of Team A winning by 2 or more?
I have been thinking about using Poisson distribution, but is there any other way to do it? I feel like I’m missing something pretty simple. Maybe Poisson is just the way to go
Thanks in advance.
submitted by Djengo22 to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Question about Asian Handicap?

I did a 12 team parlay with a payout of $1100. Part of it was an Asian handicap of NYCFC at 1.25. They only won by one and now my payout dropped to $182. Is that right because it doesn’t seem correct to me that it went it down over $900. the bet
submitted by Craftomatic75 to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

FAQ: Soccer betting

Since soccer betting is popular, there have been a lot of repetitive questions in the POTD's. I thought I could gather the most common questions and answer them here instead. I'm sure I will forget something frequently asked, so just let me know and I'll add it to this post.
Q: I can't find x in my book/what league is this?
A: Usually, both teams are stated in the POTD. Google them and you will probably find your answer. You can also use flashscore.com or a similar livescore service, select the right sport and CTRL+F your way to success.
Q: What does handicap mean?
A: When we talk about handicap in soccer, we are usually talking about the final result of the game. However, handicap expressions do exist in various markets such as corners/possession/shots taken/over-under goals and so on, but its use is essentially the same.
To add confusion, there are so called "european handicaps" and "asian handicaps". European handicaps are stupid and redundant, since they all can be expressed in asian handicaps. As far as I seen, this sub only uses the asian handicaps so I am only going to explain them.
A picture says more than a thousand words, so I'm just going to leave this here: Asian handicap explained in one picture.
Q: I don't have (a specific handicap) in my book!!!
A: Usually, this can be solved using existing lines and some math. If you want to place a -1 bet, but only have ML and -1.5 (or even european -1) you can place two bets and essentially create your own -1.
Example: Our book has ML @1.45 and -1.5 @2.50 and we'd like to risk $10. We have to place such an amount on ML that risk+winnings will equal $10. $10/1.44 = $6.94. Place that on ML and the rest of the $10 ($3.06) on -1.5. You now have your own -1 with an odd of ((6.94*1.44)+(3.06*2.05))/10 = 1.76.
If the math is too hard to follow, just use the awesome Runline Calculator.
This method can be used to create the most common types of handicaps, but you might be forced to use different variables and more bets. Use your head and you'll figure it out :)
Q: What is ML/-0.5?
A: ML (which is the exact same as -0.5) is a straight bet on whichever team you expect to be the winner after 90 minutes. If the game ends in a draw or the other team wins, you lose all your money.
Q: What does PK/DnB/+0 mean?
A: All the expressions above mean the same thing. If the game ends up in a draw after 90 minutes, your bet will push (and you get your initial bet amount back).
Q: What do "quarter handicaps" mean? (x.25/x.75)
A: A quarter handicap is two bets combined in one. For example +2.25 is a bet where half of the amount is automatically placed on +2 and the other half on +2.5.
Once again, the Asian handicap explained in one picture might be handy. The same thing applies whether it is a final result handicap, oveunder goals or something else.
Q: Is (2.0, 2.5) the same as 2.25?
A: Yes, also take a look at the answer above.
Q: Do bets ever include an eventual over-time/penalty shootout?
A: First and foremost, unless the game is part of a knock-out stage and a winner has to be declared, over-time will not be played and the game will end in a draw. It is worth noting that over-time is 2x15 minutes, and it is added if the game is currently a draw after the first 90 minutes. NOTE: some people mix up over-time and injury-time. Injury-time is added to the initial 90 minutes (most usually 2-4 minutes) to make up for time that was spilled during injuries, substitutions and/or other unexpected events during the game. Injury-time is always included in every bet.
If it is a knock-out game, and the bet does not explicitly state something like "including over-time", your ML bet will still be graded as a loss if your team manages to win during over-time.
I hope that this guide will clarify some common questions for newbie degenerates that seek their luck in soccer. As I said before, let me know if anything should be further explained/added.
submitted by manske to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[GUIDE] How I turned €500 into €15000 without risk / What have I learnt about betting during the last two years.

This is going to be a long read, and English is not my tongue language so excuse me in case there are some grammar mistakes.
I will try to explain from my experience which methods I have used during the last two years to make money in this business. Some of them worked pretty well, some of them not that good, but still I want to share with you guys some tips specially for those who just began on Betting.
To make this clear: The strategy I used and I am still using to make money on betting is the Bonus Hunting strategy I am explaining below. The rest of this post are tips and other methods which I have tryied but *not with that good results, and of course, with risk*
BETTING TIPS
There are PLENTY of amazing posts / comments about this here, but it's always good the have a reminder. From my experience this are some of them:
1. BONUS HUNTING
That's way so far the best betting method I have ever used. It takes time to Master but it's really simply an everybody can do it. I am sure you all have heard of that. Just in case you didn't do it yet, here's a basic guide:
Eg) Bet365 offers €100 to new Users if you deposit €100. (They also give a €50 phone-bonus with small requeriments). Of course you can not withdraw the money inmediatly. You have to move the money X times before that.
The requeriments for Bet365 in Spain are x4. So Bonus money + Deposit money x4. That makes 800 EUR. And the minimum odd is 1,5 and you CAN'T bet on Asian Lines.
What do I do now? Well, you just have to sign up in different betting houses and move the money. Or in other words, bet against yourself. You will need a Surebet software for that, you can easily find one on the Internet. In my case I use this one because it's pretty simple.
All the betting softwares work more or less the same way, they show:
-Profit: Bet between -1,5% +2,5%. AVOID betting at 45% surebets because that's a mistake from the bookies, they will change your odd after betting if you get lucky to place your bet before they notice of their mistake.
-Bookmarker: Here it will show up between which bookmarkers you have to place your bet. For example, you have now €200 in Bet365, and you just sign up on Pinnacle. Then you have to deposit money on Pinnacle and place the bet in both websites. Let's say Arsenal-Chelsea. Over 2,5 goals in Bet365 is @2 and Under 2,5 goals in Pinnacle is @2,03. No matter what happens that you will make 0,83% profit and you will have moved €200 of those €800 you have to move. Or even better than that, let's say the Final Score of the match is 1-1, so U2,5 goals. In that case you would have won your bet on Pinnacle, which means that you would have made aprox. €200 profit on Pinnacle and you would have lost €100 in Bet365 (Remember that from those €200 just €100 are yours, the rest is the bonus part). You have won €200 on Pinn, you have lost €100 on Bet. So totally you have made €100 in just one bet.
That's the best case, hunting the bonus in just one move. If the final score would have been 2-2, then you would have made your 0,83% profit and keep betting between Bet365 and other bookies until you would have moved the €800.
-Event: That's where you are going to bet. YOU NEVER BET ON SPORTS OR MARKETS BEFORE DOING RESEARCH.
Eg) Liverpool-Aston Villla
Over 3,5 cards @2
Under 3.5 cards @2
Seems like a good way to move your money. But you have to know that a red card in some BH is considered as 1 card and in some others is considered as 2 yellow cards.
Let's say there was 2 yellow cards and 1 red card: That would make 3 cards in one BH and 4 in another one. Imagine O3,5 was were the red cards count as one and U3,5 where red cards count as two. You would have lost all your money.
How do I know which ammount I have to bet on every case? Let's say you have found a nice 2,7% profit bet between two betting houses and you have a bonus in one of them. You will get the bonus and also the profit, that's a good one. This betting house offers a €100 bonus if you deposit the same amount. So now you would bet €200 in one side and X amount on the other side.
Let's say ManUtd vs Hull City:
MU Asian Handicap -0,5 @1,97 - Betting House 1 (You have the bonus here)
Hull City X2 @2,06 - Betting House 2
You would bet €200 @1,97 at BH 1 and €191,26 at BH2. Here's the link from one calculator I'm using (all work the same way).
THINGS YOU MUST KNOW:
You can only hunt the bonus ONCE per person which means that If you want to continue doing this method you will have to find more people who wants to do it. That's what I have done, friends of mine gave me the documents I needed + PayPal/NetelleSkrill verified account and I do it for them. Of course I pay them around €100-€150. Which is not bad money for them considering they have to do nothing almost. Is it hard to find people? Well, I have 6 on the line right now, everybody wants money for free specially if they are students.
How much money do I need for getting started? I would say around €500. So you can sign up for a €100 Bonus depositing €200 in another house and you still have some extra-money just in case you win all your bets on the 'Bonus Betting House' and you haven't moved enough money to make the withdrawal yet. Once you start making money you can do this method for more than one person at the same time.
How much money can I make? Depends on the betting houses available in your country and the number of persons you are doing at once. UK is the best one so far (more BH, more offers) Spain is pretty good also. You have to do your own research for your country.
2. ARBITRAGE BETTING That's what you use for hunting the bonus - moving money between two betting houses without risk because you have placed bets on all the possible options -. You can do it independently. If your country has acces to betting houses where you don't get limit you can move money between them at high profit ranges.
Eg) Valencia-Sevilla.
BBTS YES @2,3 - Betting House 1
BBTS NO @1,97 - Betting House 2
There is a 6,85% profit on this Bet. Which is amazing. Now you could place a €2000 bet. For example betting €1032,72 on option 1 and €1205,69 in option two you would make €136,82 no matter what happens.
What is the problem with this method?
3. TRADING I have done Betting Trading for a while, you can do it WHILE the match is being played or before that. What is the method about? It's about trying to figure out what the odds of one match are going to do before they do. Obviously you need to have strong information about the match you want to bet on.
*Eg) Based on this week. Dortmund-Real Madrid. Dortmund to win opening odd was @2,78 (15th September). The odd right before the match for the same bet was @2,23. WHY? Well, because something has happened between these time. Real Madrid couldn't win Las Palmas the 24th + some injuries + Cristian Ronaldo haven't done his best. And Dortmund won Wolfsburf 1-5 and Freiburg 3-1 in 3 days.
Now let's see somehow you could have seen that Real Madrid would have trouble in Las Palmas stadium and Dortmund would continue winning on Bundesliga.
Let's say you placed a €1000 bet on Dortmund to win @2,78 (day when the bookies offered the match). Then you waited and right before the match was started you bet €1588 on Real Madrid +0,5 @1,75.
You would have made €191,43 and the match would't have even started.*
Check it yourself here
Of course this a risky-long term example, but you can do it before and after the lines-ups. If you think some player won't play because you have strong information about that, place your bet, wait for the odd to raise up and close the bet on the other side aftertwards.
Does anyone really make money this way? Yes. Let's say you know a professional tipster with a lot of subscribers. When this guy shows the next bet a lot of people who have payed for that service will bet there, and usually big amounts of money. If you somehow know where the influential-tipster is going to bet before he posts it to his subscriptors you have your business done. Open bet, wait for the odd to go down, close bet other side.
What does people who doesn't have access to this kind of information (mostly everybody)?. They do big research, check a lot of pages, be documented as posible. If you find something really good some or later the odd will drop. But it's hard to find.
Where to do trading? Pinnacle doesn't limit, that's why most of people uses that BH. Also betfair is an excelent option for this kind of methods.
Good luck with your betting!
submitted by jomavi12 to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Improve my betting model

10 days ago, I first heard about betting models while i was reading some stuff. Since i'm an into numbers guy and like betting, I was interested in learning more about it. So, I came on this sub and asked how people try to calculate their own odds to find value bets. They told me to look into poisson. So that's what i did. I gathered data and made some kind of very basic model.

5 days ago I came on here again because I wasn't quite happy with the result. People told me to expand my matrix and use more recent data. Again, that's what i did.

Now I've once again come to a point where I'm kinda stuck. I have fully automated the "Calculations" tab. I just have to copy paste the data after every gameweek, which then adjusts the avg goals, att strength and def strength. After that, I just have to select the match up from the drop down table and the matrix and odds will get calculated automatically. Efficiency wise, it's great and I'm honestly proud of it I made it this easy to get my odds. It takes 2 minutes to get it up to date for every week and even less time to gather odds for a match up
However, while the odds are not bad, I feel like they're still a bit off.
I've tried to weight the data from season 18/19 more than the 17/18 date but it doesn't change that much. People told me to use shots to calculate the expected goals or to just grab the expected goals from a website. However, I want to see how I can improve this model first, based on goals scored at home and away.
I'm now looking to also implement OveUnder 2.5 odds as well as BTTS and maybe Asian Handicap. This shouldn't take long though.
I'd appreciate any feedback and suggestions on how i could improve it and get closer to realistic odds.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Dqkc9U5uQV70HS6YnhbDx5MQO4F4vu8qrjH4w7Qvb3o/edit?usp=sharing
As said, you can use the drop down menu to calculate the odds for each match up. If you want a copy for your own (so other people can't edit it), shoot me a pm and i'll provide you with a personal link.
submitted by Lensjo to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Asian Handicap Preview - Betting asian handicap 1X2 Home -- Draw -- Away: Expected Odds Calculation & Setting of Market Prices ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING TUTORIAL - EXPLAINED IN BANGLA Decimal Odds Explained and How to Calculate Decimal Odds, Wager Price.

Asian Handicap betting is popular for soccer fixtures and other sports where a draw is a strong possibility. Many punters are put off Asian Handicap markets because the quarter handicaps are initially difficult to get your head around. This calculator will enable you to see how Asian Handicap works. It is different from the 0.25 Asian handicap betting market with a slight exception. Betis @1.90 vs Real Madrid @1.90. You are betting £100 on Betis to win +0.75 Asian handicap. The home team is the underdog. As a result of it, Betis has the 0.75 goal handicap of the Asian handicap offer. If Betis wins or ties the game, you win the bet. Asian Handicap calculator enables you to calculate payoff and profit scenarios for Asian Handicap bets. You can view the bet result for a specific scoreline, or you can analyse every possible scenario for a particular wager. Many punters are put off Asian Handicap markets because the quarter handicaps are initially difficult to get your head around. To calculate the payoff and profit scenarios for Asian handicap bets, select the home or away team, choose your preferred odds format (our calculator offers 6 types of odds formats including decimal, fractional, American, Hong Kong, Indo and Malay), introduce the home or away team odds, then select the handicap you want to bet on.Now enter your stake, pick the calculation options: either a Asian Handicap betting which is commonly abbreviated with “AH” is popular way of betting used by some of the most profitable punters around the globe. Commonly people new to betting feel frustrated with Asian handicap concept due to its complexity. Bettingmetrics Asian Handicap calculator is designed to help bettors work around the potential outcome of a game with all possible Asian

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Asian Handicap Preview - Betting

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